January 30th, 2026
The Toronto East markets—Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, and Oshawa—remain a compelling hub of opportunity, combining relatively affordable land, proximity to Toronto, and excellent highway access.
In Q4 2025, the broader GTA industrial market closed the year on a resilient footing, with overall vacancy at 5.0% and annual new leasing activity reaching 26.9 MSF, the highest level in four years. Within this context, GTA East stabilized, with overall vacancy edging down from 7.7% one year ago to 7.3% in Q4, total inventory of 56.8 MSF, and 1.96 MSF of new supply delivered year‑to‑date. GTA East’s weighted average asking net rent was $14.13 PSF with $3.54 PSF in additional rent (TMI), keeping it the lowest‑rent major region in the GTA but still competitive given its growing base of modern logistics and manufacturing facilities.
So without further ado, let’s examine how the Greater Toronto Area—and more specifically, the Toronto East markets—performed in Q4 2025, and where we expect the market to go moving forward.
Key Takeaways from Q4 2025 – Toronto East Markets
- The overall GTA East vacancy rate decreased year‑over‑year from 7.7% to 7.3%, with 7.3% available for lease and effectively 0.0% available for sale in Q4 2025.
- GTA East now totals 56,826,979 SF of existing inventory, with 1,955,030 SF of new supply delivered year‑to‑date and 887,542 SF still under construction as of Q4.
- GTA East recorded 379,533 SF of positive net absorption in the quarter and 2,015,884 SF of absorption year‑to‑date, indicating steady tenant demand despite elevated vacancies in select nodes.
- The weighted average asking net rent in GTA East was $14.13 PSF, with additional rent (TMI) at $3.54 PSF in Q4 2025.
Why are the GTA East Markets in such demand?
The Toronto‑East markets continue to offer strong underlying economics: relatively inexpensive land when compared to West and North markets, better availability of serviced industrial sites, proximity to the City of Toronto, and excellent access to Highway 401, 412, 418, and 407. Large institutional and private developers have committed to sizeable land positions for both speculative and design‑build projects, resulting in over 4.1 MSF of vacant space, 1.96 MSF of newly delivered product, and nearly 0.9 MSF still under construction in Q4 2025.
These fundamentals make GTA East especially attractive for users seeking modern large‑bay distribution or specialized manufacturing facilities at rental rates and capital values below those found in GTA West and GTA North. As a result, the region increasingly serves as a release valve for cost‑sensitive occupiers being priced out of other GTA submarkets, while still allowing access to the same labour force and transportation networks.
So, if you are an Investor, Landlord, or Owner-Occupier you may be wondering…
“How much is my property really worth?”
What rental rate can I expect? How much $/PSF would I be able to get if I sold my building?
Getting to “True” Value – What Really Drives Pricing?
The answers depend on a range of property‑specific characteristics, including:
- Building age and size – larger, newer facilities in Whitby and Pickering are generally achieving higher net rents and lower cap rates than older product in Ajax and Oshawa.
- Lot size, site coverage, and expansion potential – critical in land‑constrained pockets of Pickering and central Ajax.
- Ceiling height, loading configuration, dock count, and truck court depth – key differentiators in new generation projects along Thickson Road and Highway 7.
- Office component, power capacity, parking ratios, trailer parking, and outside storage rights – all of which can materially impact both achievable rent and user demand.
In order to get to the truth of value, we need to dig deeper into both the macro‑level statistics and the micro‑level nuances of each asset and submarket benchmark set..
This week we are covering the Toronto-East Markets
(Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa & Clarington)
Statistical Summary – GTA East Markets – Q4 2025
Q4 2025 GTA Industrial Market Overview – Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Properties Sold between October 2025 – December 2025, from 20,000 SF plus
285 South Blair Street, Whitby
GTA East Markets
Properties Leased between October 2025 – December 2025, from 20,000 SF plus
901 Hopkins Street, Whtiby
Toronto East Submarket Performance
Ajax recorded the highest vacancy in the East at 13.7%, unchanged from last quarter, on a total inventory of 12.66 MSF and 1,737,254 SF of vacant space. Net absorption in Q4 was slightly negative at –1,008 SF (yet still 600,260 SF positive year‑to‑date), with no new supply delivered but 290,780 SF still under construction. Average net rent reached $14.20 PSF with TMI of $3.95 PSF.
Oshawa remained tight, with vacancy holding at 2.5% across 20.42 MSF of inventory and 517,654 SF of vacant space. The market recorded flat absorption in Q4 (0 SF) but a strong 705,207 SF of absorption year‑to‑date, supported by 499,665 SF of new supply earlier in the year. Average net rent was $13.57 PSF with TMI of $2.97 PSF.
Pickering’s vacancy rose to 7.9% from 6.5% last quarter, reflecting the delivery and lease‑up of newer projects, with 968,124 SF vacant across 12.29 MSF of inventory. Q4 absorption was modestly positive at 5,735 SF (321,602 SF year‑to‑date), with 688,877 SF of new supply delivered year‑to‑date and 233,151 SF under construction. Average asking net rent stood at $15.25 PSF (the highest in the East), with TMI at $3.53 PSF.
Whitby posted a notable improvement, with vacancy declining from 10.9% in Q3 to 8.0% in Q4, leaving 919,992 SF vacant in an 11.46 MSF inventory. Q4 absorption was a robust 374,806 SF (388,815 SF year‑to‑date), supported by 766,488 SF of new supply and 363,611 SF under construction. Average net rent was $13.11 PSF with TMI at $4.08 PSF
What Lies Ahead:
- Rental Rates: The Toronto‑East markets collectively posted a weighted average net rent of $14.13 PSF in Q4 2025, the lowest among major GTA regions but still under downward pressure in select Class B and C assets. Given the 7.3% vacancy and elevated availability in Ajax and Pickering, rental growth is expected to remain modest, with flat‑to‑slightly‑negative effective rents in older product and more resilience in new large‑bay facilities along key corridors. Annual escalations are likely to hover around the low‑to‑mid‑3% range on new deals, with concessions and incentives (free rent, enhanced TI packages) used more frequently to secure mid‑size tenants. Leasing timelines have lengthened, and tenants should continue to benefit from increased choice through at least 2026, particularly in submarkets where significant speculative deliveries are still working through initial absorption.
- Property Values: GTA East continues to post one of the lowest weighted‑average asking sale prices in the GTA at approximately $411 PSF, heavily influenced by industrial condo pricing. As rents have flattened or softened on some investment‑grade assets, capitalization rates have adjusted outward, putting pressure on values for pure investment product, while user‑sale pricing remains comparatively firm given the limited supply of quality owner‑occupier buildings. Development land values have come under pressure due to elevated vacancy, increased construction costs, and tighter financing conditions, but well‑located, serviced parcels in Whitby, Pickering, and Ajax remain highly sought after for build‑to‑suit and design‑build mandates.
- Development Opportunities: Over the last several quarters, the East has seen a significant wave of completions, driving higher vacancies in some pockets but also creating exactly the type of modern large‑format space that major users require. Big players—including Panattoni and other institutional developers—remain active, yet the pace of new speculative starts is expected to slow, with a tilt toward pre‑leased or design‑build projects until absorption fully catches up, likely into 2026 and beyond.
For investors, landlords, and owner‑occupiers, GTA East remains a strategic avenue for acquiring or developing institutional‑quality industrial assets at a basis below West and North alternatives, while still benefiting from GTA‑wide demand drivers. The key to unlocking “true value” will be a careful, asset‑by‑asset analysis against the Q4 2025 benchmarks summarized above—calibrating expectations for rent, price per square foot, and absorption timeline in each specific Toronto‑East submarket.
So, how much is your property really worth?
What rental rate can you expect or how much per SF would you be able to get if you sell your building? How much can we compress CAP rates to create even greater value?
Well, the answers to these questions will depend on a variety of factors, many of which we can quickly uncover in an assessment of your situation. And with our rental rates and valuations at all-time highs, and vacancy rates low, finding the right property is a real challenge.
Having said that, a lot of transactions are being done off the market.. and to participate in that, you should connect with experienced brokers that have long-standing relationships with property owners.
For a confidential consultation or a complimentary opinion of value of your property please give us a call.
Until next week…
Goran Brelih and his team have been servicing Investors and Occupiers of Industrial properties in Toronto Central and Toronto North markets for the past 30 years.
Goran Brelih is an Executive Vice President for Cushman & Wakefield ULC in the Greater Toronto Area.
Over the past 30 years, he has been involved in the lease or sale of approximately 25.7 million square feet of industrial space, valued in excess of $1.6 billion dollars while averaging between 40 and 50 transactions per year and achieving the highest level of sales, from the President’s Round Table to Top Ten in GTA and the National Top Ten.
Specialties:
Industrial Real Estate Sales and Leasing, Investment Sales, Design-Build and Land Development
About Cushman & Wakefield ULC.
Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 53,000 employees in 400 offices and 60 countries.
In 2020, the firm had revenue of $7.8 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com.
For more information on GTA Industrial Real Estate Market or to discuss how they can assist you with your real estate needs please contact Goran at 416-756-5456, email at goran.brelih@cushwake.com, or visit www.goranbrelih.com.
Connect with Me Here! – Goran Brelih’s Linkedin Profile: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/goranbrelih
< Goran Brelih, SIOR
Executive Vice President, Broker
Cushman & Wakefield ULC, Brokerage.
www.cushmanwakefield.com
Office: 416-756-5456
Mobile: 416-458-4264
Mail: goran.brelih@cushwake.com
Website: www.goranbrelih.com
