Q1 2026 Insight- GTA East Markets

The GTA East industrial market delivered one of the most compelling quarters of any submarket in the GTA in Q1 2026. Comprising Ajax, Oshawa, Pickering, and Whitby, the East market recorded a sharp decline in vacancy, exceptional leasing volume, and meaningful positive absorption all against a backdrop of measured new supply and continued occupier demand for modern, highway-connected logistics space.

In Q1 2026, the GTA East Markets recorded a total inventory of 57,823,906 SF across 581 buildings. The overall vacancy rate fell notably to 6.6%, down from 7.3% in Q4 2025, the only major GTA submarket to record a vacancy rate decline quarter-over-quarter. YOY, vacancy has compressed dramatically from 8.9% in Q1 2025, a 230 basis point improvement that stands out against a GTA-wide trend of modest vacancy increases. Leasing activity totaled 950,494 SF for the quarter, well above recent averages, anchored by the quarter’s second-largest transaction in the GTA: the 470,000 SF new lease at 537 Kingston Road East in Ajax. Positive absorption reached 745,312 SF, the strongest quarterly result in GTA East in several years.

The weighted average asking net rent was $14.43 PSF, with TMI of $3.72 PSF. While this sits below the GTA average of $16.36 PSF, it reflects a product mix that includes older functional stock alongside new Class A LEED-certified facilities. The weighted average asking sale price was $292.04 PSF, the most compelling value proposition of any GTA submarket outside of Hamilton.

6.6% Overall Vacancy Rate

950,494 SF Q1 Leasing Activity

+745,312 SF Q1 Net Absorption

$14.43 PSF Avg Net Asking Rent

Why Are GTA East Markets Gaining Momentum?

The GTA East continues to attract significant occupier and investor interest for a distinct set of structural advantages:

• Direct Highway 401 Access: Ajax, Pickering, and Oshawa each offer multiple 401 interchanges, enabling seamless connectivity to Montreal, Toronto’s core, and GTA West distribution networks, critical for large-format logistics users.
• Cost Advantage vs. 416 and GTA West: Net rents and occupancy costs remain meaningfully below GTA Central and GTA West comparables, offering users an efficient cost structure without sacrificing infrastructure quality.
• Growing Labour and Population Base: Durham Region is one of the fastest-growing regions in Ontario, providing a deep and accessible labour pool for industrial operators and logistics providers.
• Modern New Supply: Recent Class A developments including LEED-certified, 40’ clear height facilities—at 321 Church Street and 537 Kingston Road East in Ajax have raised the bar for product quality in the submarket.
• Investment Value Proposition: With asking sale prices averaging $292 PSF, GTA East offers some of the most attractive acquisition metrics in the GTA, drawing both institutional and private capital seeking yield and value-add opportunities.

Key Takeaways from Q1 2026 – GTA East Markets

• The overall vacancy rate fell to 6.6%, down from 7.3% in Q4 2025—the only GTA submarket to record vacancy compression quarter-over-quarter;
• Ajax led the submarket with vacancy dropping sharply to 10.4% from 13.7%, driven entirely by the 470,000 SF lease at 537 Kingston Road East;
• Leasing activity totaled 950,494 SF in Q1 2026, the strongest quarter in recent memory and the second-highest volume of any GTA submarket behind GTA West;
• Positive net absorption of 745,312 SF was recorded—the strongest result among all GTA submarkets this quarter;
• There was 390,464 SF under construction across Ajax and Whitby, reflecting continued developer confidence in the market;
• The weighted average asking net rent was $14.43 PSF with TMI of $3.72 PSF—below the GTA average, reflecting product mix and submarket positioning; and
• Investment sales totaled 601,137 SF with a weighted average asking sale price of $292.04 PSF, with notable transactions in Whitby and Oshawa.

Navigating Q1 2026: Market Dynamics and Forward Outlook

Through the first quarter of 2026, the Toronto Central Markets have displayed characteristic resilience amid trade policy uncertainty and cautious capital markets. Several key themes are shaping activity:

Leasing Momentum: Q1 2026 leasing activity in GTA East reached 950,494 SF, propelled by two landmark transactions in Ajax. The headline deal—537 Kingston Road East, a 470,000 SF commitment by Geodis Logistics at a Class A, 40’ clear, zero-carbon designed building—was the second-largest lease in the GTA this quarter and underscores the East market’s growing appeal to large-format logistics occupiers. Additional leasing was recorded across Oshawa (999 Boundary Road, 143,000 SF), Pickering (885 Sandy Beach Road, 118,000 SF), and Whitby (1655 Stellar Drive, 67,381 SF), demonstrating broad-based demand across the submarket

Vacancy Compression: GTA East stands apart from the broader GTA trend in Q1 2026—it is the only major market recording a vacancy rate decline. Ajax alone saw vacancy fall 330 basis points in one quarter from 13.7% to 10.4%, driven by the Kingston Road lease. Oshawa remains exceptionally tight at 1.8% vacancy—one of the lowest rates in the GTA. Pickering and Whitby remain elevated but have shown modest absorption. The year-over-year story is even more compelling: vacancy has fallen 230 bps from 8.9% in Q1 2025, the strongest improvement trajectory in the GTA.

Rental Rate Observations: The weighted average asking net rent of $14.43 PSF reflects the submarket’s mix of older functional stock and new Class A product. Achieved rents on new leases this quarter ranged from $10.00 PSF (Pickering, older building) to $16.00 PSF (Ajax, new Class A), illustrating a clear quality premium. New construction in Ajax is attracting rents in line with or above the GTA suburban average, while older product continues to find occupiers at discounted levels. As older product is absorbed and new supply is leased, the average rate is expected to drift upward.

Investment Activity: Q1 2026 investment activity in GTA East was dominated by two significant institutional transactions. In Whitby, 100 Nordeagle Avenue—a 420,000 SF facility—traded at $115.4M ($275 PSF) as Crombie Property Holdings acquired the asset from Sobeys Capital, signaling strong institutional appetite for well-located, large-format industrial assets in the Durham Region. In Oshawa, 1100 Thornton Road South (129,432 SF) traded at $32.45M ($251 PSF) in an investment acquisition by Dream Summit Industrial. A user sale was also recorded in Pickering (890 Dillingham Road, 30,107 SF at $319 PSF). The average sale price across the three transactions was approximately $265 PSF.

GTA East Markets (Ajax) 

No properties over 20,000 SF were sold in Ajax during Q1 2026.

Properties Leased between January 2026 – March 2026, from 20,000 SF plus

Address	Leased SF	Clear Height	Net Rent (PSF)
689 Salem Road Bldg C	38,640	40′	$15.25 *
321 Church Street Bldg C	49,499	40′	$15.00
537 Kingston Road East	470,000	40′	$16.00

In Ajax in Q1 2026, 3 properties were leased totaling 558,139 SF.  The headline transaction was the 470,000 SF new lease by Geodis Logistics at 537 Kingston Road East. the second-largest lease in the GTA this quarter. Achieved net rental rates ranged from $15.00 PSF- $16.00 PSF, with an average building size of 186,046 SF and an average achieved net rent of $15.42 PSF. All three transactions were in new, LEED-certified buildings.

*asking net rental rate

GTA East Markets (Oshawa) 

Properties Sold between January 2026 – March 2026, from 20,000 SF plus

Address	Size (SF)	Lot (Ac)	Sale Price	$/PSF	Type
1100 Thornton Road South	129,432	12.02	$32,450,000	$251	Investment

In Oshawa in Q1 2026, 1 property was sold. The property at 1100 Thornton Road South was acquired by Dream Summit Industrial at $32.45M ($251 PSF), reflecting continued institutional demand for well-located Durham Region industrial assets. Oshawa remains exceptionally tight with a vacancy rate of just 1.8%.

Properties Leased between January 2026 – March 2026, from 20,000 SF plus

Address	Leased SF	Clear Height	Net Rent (PSF)
999 Boundary Road (Rear)	143,000	25’3″	$12.25*

In Oshawa in Q1 2026, 1 property was leased at 999 Boundary Road, with an asking net rent of $12.25 PSF. The building offers 22′ to 25.3′ clear height, 47 truck-level doors, and direct Highway 401 access.
*asking net rental rate

GTA East Markets (Pickering)

Properties Sold between January 2026 – March 2026, from 20,000 SF plus

Address	Size (SF)	Lot (Ac)	Sale Price	$/PSF	Type
890 Dillingham Road	30,107	1.59	$9,600,000	$319	User

In Pickering in Q1 2026, 1 property was sold. The property at 890 Dillingham Road, 30,107 SF sold for $9.6M ($319 PSF), demonstrating solid user acquisition demand in the submarket. Pickering’s 8.9% vacancy rate reflects available new supply from recent development, and sale pricing for quality assets remains above $300 PSF.

Properties Leased between January 2026 – March 2026, from 20,000 SF plus

Address	Leased SF	Clear Height	Net Rent (PSF)
885 Sandy Beach Road	118,000	24′	$10.00*

In Pickering in Q1 2026, 1 property was leased at 885 Sandy Beach Road, the asking net rent was $10.00 PSF. The recently renovated building features 24′ clear height, new HVAC, LED lighting, and updated shipping doors. 

*asking net rental rate

GTA East Markets (Whitby)

Properties Sold between January 2026 – March 2026, from 20,000 SF plus

Address	Size (SF)	Lot (Ac)	Sale Price	$/PSF	Type
100 Nordeagle Avenue	420,000	42.67	$115,400,000	$275	Investment

In Whitby in Q1 2026, 1 investment property was sold at $115.4M ($275 PSF). The acquisition of 100 Nordeagle Avenue was the largest industrial sale in the GTA East in recent quarters.

Properties Leased between January 2026 – March 2026, from 20,000 SF plus

Address	Leased SF	Clear Height	Net Rent (PSF)
1655 Stellar Drive #1-2	67,381	40′	$15.75

In Whitby in Q1 2026, 1 property was leased at 1655 Stellar Drive a new Menkes development at Whitby Business Park. The achieved rate of $15.75 PSF for new Class A, 40’ clear space reflects competitive pricing for institutional-quality new supply in Whitby.

What Lies Ahead: Market Outlook

1. Rental Rates –  The gap between older functional product and new Class A space in GTA East has widened. We anticipate:

• New Class A Facilities: Rents for 40’ clear, LEED-certified space in Ajax and Whitby are holding at $15.00–$16.00 PSF net, in line with GTA suburban averages. As available new supply tightens, modest upward pressure is expected.
• Functional Secondary Stock: Older buildings will continue to clear at discounts of $3.00–$5.00 PSF below comparable new product. Landlords of secondary buildings should consider capital improvements to narrow this gap.
• Rental Rate Floor: GTA East appears to be approaching a rental rate floor faster than other submarkets, given the rapid absorption of available Class A space and Oshawa’s sub-2% vacancy rate.

2. Property Values 

• Investment Properties: The 100 Nordeagle Avenue transaction validates institutional pricing in the $275–$300 PSF range for larger, well-tenanted assets. Cap rate compression will be gradual but directionally positive as leasing fundamentals improve.
• User Properties: Supply of quality owner-user buildings remains constrained across Durham Region. Owner-occupiers looking to acquire should act while pricing remains below GTA West and Central comparables.
• Development Land: Durham Region’s growth trajectory, cost advantages, and Highway 401 access make it a compelling target for industrial land acquisitions ahead of the next development cycle.

3. Development Opportunities 

• Ajax Industrial Corridor: The Highway 401 and Salem/Church Street corridor in Ajax has emerged as a focal point for Class A industrial development. Additional phases of approved projects remain available for occupiers requiring BTS or near-term SPEC delivery.
• Whitby Business Park: Menkes’ Whitby Business Park continues to offer new supply with institutional-quality specifications. Remaining availability in the 67,381–163,611 SF range provides flexibility for mid-size logistics users.
• Oshawa and Pickering: Land availability and cost-competitive rents make these nodes attractive for last-mile, food distribution, and heavy industrial users requiring large sites and heavy power.

Conclusion

The GTA East Markets have entered 2026 as one of the standout performers in the Greater Toronto Area industrial landscape. The combination of falling vacancy, exceptional leasing volume, strong positive absorption, and meaningful institutional investment activity paints a constructive picture for the balance of 2026.

For Investors: GTA East offers the most compelling value-to-fundamentals proposition in the GTA. With asking sale prices well below GTA West and Central averages, improving vacancy metrics, and growing institutional interest, this market presents an attractive risk-adjusted entry point.
For Landlords: The bifurcation between new Class A product and secondary stock is accelerating. Investment in building improvements—ceiling heights, shipping infrastructure, power upgrades—will increasingly determine competitive positioning and achievable rent levels.
For Owner-Occupiers: With pricing still well below GTA West comparables and a recovering leasing market, owner-occupiers have a narrowing window to acquire quality assets before values adjust to reflect improving fundamentals.
For Tenants: Available Class A space in Ajax is being absorbed rapidly. Tenants with large-format requirements should act decisively, as the options in new high-bay space are diminishing. Oshawa’s near-zero vacancy means relocating tenants must plan significantly in advance.

A significant volume of transactions both leases and sales continue to be negotiated off-market in GTA East. To participate in these opportunities, connect with experienced brokers who maintain active relationships across the Durham Region industrial ownership community.

For a confidential consultation or a complimentary opinion of value of your property, please reach out to our team.

Until next week…

Goran Brelih and his team have been servicing Investors and Occupiers of Industrial properties in Toronto Central and Toronto North markets for the past 30 years.

Goran Brelih is an Executive Vice President for Cushman & Wakefield ULC in the Greater Toronto Area.

Over the past 30 years, he has been involved in the lease or sale of approximately 25.7 million square feet of industrial space, valued in excess of $1.6 billion dollars while averaging between 40 and 50 transactions per year and achieving the highest level of sales, from the President’s Round Table to Top Ten in GTA and the National Top Ten.

Specialties:
Industrial Real Estate Sales and Leasing, Investment Sales, Design-Build and Land Development

About Cushman & Wakefield ULC.
Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 53,000 employees in 400 offices and 60 countries.

In 2020, the firm had revenue of $7.8 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com.

For more information on GTA Industrial Real Estate Market or to discuss how they can assist you with your real estate needs please contact Goran at 416-756-5456, email at goran.brelih@cushwake.com, or visit www.goranbrelih.com.

Connect with Me Here! – Goran Brelih’s Linkedin Profile: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/goranbrelih