It was only a few short years ago that industrial land across the Greater Toronto Area was outperforming every other asset class by a mile. And it wasn’t even close. Or reasonably debatable. Heck, it even gave Bitcoin a run for its proverbial virtual money.
Sites that had been acquired and held for three to five years were sold to major developers for double, triple, even ten times their value.
Case in point: the 200 acres at 5244 Tremaine Road in Milton was purchased in September of 2021 for $165 million from a syndicate of investors who had scooped up the site for just $15 million in July 2015.
Even at that astronomical appreciation (likely due to the lands being brought into the secondary plan and/or being serviced), $826,732 per acre would be considered an amazing deal in today’s market, especially for a quality location and shovel-ready status.
Fast-forward past the post-lockdown boom and waves of economic uncertainty and we find ourselves in an industrial market with more ‘healthy slack’, stabilizing rents and values, and a softer appetite for large land deals and speculative development.
Ultimately, it was the sub-1% vacancies, construction bottlenecks, and delirious demand which drove the industrial land sales market to new heights. That emotional mania no longer exists. Rather, we see a more consistent and methodical approach from developers.
On the other hand, those that had land banked a little too aggressively have looked to piece off parcels or partner with tenants looking to do design builds. Even those who were not over-extended by any means are doing so to spread risk and cash out on lands that have, at worst case, appreciated by multi-double-digit percentage points.
It feels a bit like we’re ‘back to our regular programming,’ when looking at the trades in 2024-to-date, where we see a healthy range of pricing and circumstance; from the high-prized trophy sites and big name joint ventures down to systematic land banking and the odd power of sale.
Land sales at $4 million and up per acre are more the exception now than the rule, and are left to high-density, infill projects rather than big box warehouse developments. With the abundance of existing inventory now available to tenants, those getting involved in pre-leasing or design-builds are doing so because they want to, not because they need to.
Exceptional locations. Zero net carbon certifications. Rare features such as contiguous space of over 1,000,000 square feet, ultra-heavy power, cold storage, high door ratios or cross docks, or proximity to rail, air, or intermodal. These are the attributes commanding premiums. Essentially anything that cannot be easily changed or retrofitted into an asset.
As we move forward, it will be interesting to see if and where the development pipeline stabilizes, and what the trickle-up effect will be on the industrial land market.
So without further ado, let’s look at some notable industrial land currently listed for sale across the GTA.
Notable GTA Industrial Land Available For Sale
Below are some of the more prominent industrial land opportunities currently available for sale. For a much more thorough and complete list, or if you have a specific requirement – such as industrial outside storage or infill redevelopment – please contact us.
- 386 Wilcox St, Hamilton – Steelport
Steelport. Source: Slate Asset Management.
Slate Asset Management purchased the 800-acre, former Stelco site at 386 Wilcox St in Hamilton for $518 million. Now, the developer has unveiled its vision for ‘Steelport,’ a “ world-class industrial park connecting rail, road, and water in the historic port of Hamilton, Canada.”
As part of the transaction, Stelco is retaining approximately 1.5 million square feet on 100 acres in a long-term sale-leaseback with Slate. Now, we finally see a plethora of land parcel configurations being offered for sale without a posted price. The site offers a rail connection to CN’s main line, along with outside storage zoning, and opportunities for developers to bring forth Net Zero Carbon and LEED certified projects. Colliers is marketing the sale of the asset(s).
- 10862 & 10874 Steeles Avenue East, Halton Hills
10862 & 10874 Steeles Avenue East, Halton Hills. Source: Lee & Associates.
- 12304 Heart Lake Rd, Caledon
12304 Heart Lake Rd, Caledon. Source: Colliers.
- 2777 Meadowpine Blvd, Mississauga
2777 Meadowpine Blvd, Mississauga.
The site at 2777 Meadowpine Boulevard in Mississauga is a rare, shovel-ready, 3.94-acre development site with direct exposure to Highway 401. Offered at $11,200,000 – or $2,842,639 per acre – an initial draft site plan showcases a potential 77,470 square foot industrial facility in close proximity to several other new developments on Meadowpine Boulevard; part of the Meadowvale Business Park. Colliers is marketing the opportunity on behalf of Carttera.
- 5605 Baldwin St S, Whitby
5605 Baldwin St S, Whitby.
Although industrial real estate across the GTA remains highly sought-after, the market is generally slower-moving than what it was at its peak. Longer leasing and sales times mean developers are likely to wait until lease-up or closing before kicking off the next project. This also may mean passing on or delaying acquisition plays further up the pipeline.
Changes to pro formas, such as increases in development charges and construction costs, along with lower rents and slower escalations mean lower land values and potentially unfeasible projects.
Ultimately, and as mentioned above, trophy assets will always be coveted. Location, location, location rings true as always. For developers, a willingness to partner with the right tenant to construct their dream operation may be the most prudent exit strategy in an economic landscape that is seeing tenants have all the negotiating power amongst undifferentiated assets. And for those tenants that were crowded out during the peak, now may be the most opportune time to build the facility you have wanted but could not secure up until now. It all begins with the foundation; the right parcel of land.
Until next week…
Goran Brelih and his team have been servicing Investors and Occupiers of Industrial properties in Toronto Central and Toronto North markets for the past 30 years.
Goran Brelih is an Executive Vice President for Cushman & Wakefield ULC in the Greater Toronto Area.
Over the past 30 years, he has been involved in the lease or sale of approximately 25.7 million square feet of industrial space, valued in excess of $1.6 billion dollars while averaging between 40 and 50 transactions per year and achieving the highest level of sales, from the President’s Round Table to Top Ten in GTA and the National Top Ten.
Specialties:
Industrial Real Estate Sales and Leasing, Investment Sales, Design-Build and Land Development
About Cushman & Wakefield ULC.
Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 53,000 employees in 400 offices and 60 countries.
In 2020, the firm had revenue of $7.8 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com.
For more information on GTA Industrial Real Estate Market or to discuss how they can assist you with your real estate needs please contact Goran at 416-756-5456, email at goran.brelih@cushwake.com, or visit www.goranbrelih.com.
Connect with Me Here! – Goran Brelih’s Linkedin Profile: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/goranbrelih
Goran Brelih, SIOR
Executive Vice President, Broker
Cushman & Wakefield ULC, Brokerage.
www.cushmanwakefield.com
Office: 416-756-5456
Mobile: 416-458-4264
Mail: goran.brelih@cushwake.com
Website: www.goranbrelih.com
